In a refreshing turn for evidence-driven public discourse, ThinkBusiness Africa has offered a robust, data-backed counterpoint to growing calls for a dramatic 1,200% hike in Nigeria’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) tax. While advocacy group Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) recently urged the federal government to raise the SSB tax from N10 to N130 per litre, ThinkBusiness Africa is championing a more pragmatic path—one rooted in sound data, economic balance, and holistic public health strategy.
Led by respected economist Dr. Ogho Okiti, ThinkBusiness Africa critically examined CAPPA’s report, “Junk on Our Plates,” describing its proposals as “statistically inconsistent and economically risky.” The firm emphasized that meaningful health policy should be guided not by urgency or emotion, but by robust evidence and long-term impact.
“You cannot credibly propose a 1200 percent increase in any tax without first evaluating the impact of the existing policy,” Dr. Okiti explained. “Policy decisions must be rooted in evidence, not just urgency. The risk of overreach is high—both in economic disruption and public trust.”
According to ThinkBusiness Africa, CAPPA’s report draws conclusions from outdated and mismatched data, failing to align the identified health trends with the proposed demographic targets. The counter-report further challenges the notion that the current N10/litre SSB tax has failed, pointing out that no national assessment has been conducted to measure its effectiveness.
Beyond the analytical gaps, ThinkBusiness Africa warns of the wider economic consequences of a sudden tax spike. Nigeria’s beverage industry—already burdened with an effective 45% tax rate—could face significant strain, endangering thousands of jobs and pushing up consumer prices. The informal sector, which thrives in both rural and urban communities, would be particularly vulnerable.
“There’s a tendency in some advocacy circles to treat sugar-sweetened beverages as the sole culprit in Nigeria’s nutritional challenges,” Dr. Okiti said.
“But dietary health is influenced by a constellation of factors—urbanization, income, education, processed food consumption, and sedentary behavior. Singling out SSBs is reductionist.”
Surprisingly, Nigeria’s sugar consumption remains among the lowest in West Africa, with per capita intake standing at 6.9kg in 2018, according to the National Sugar Development Council. This starkly contrasts with the alarmist framing of the country’s sugar consumption narrative and raises further questions about the necessity of an extreme fiscal measure. ThinkBusiness Africa is also pushing for greater policy transparency.
Since the SSB tax was introduced in 2022, no public report has accounted for the revenue it has generated or how those funds have been used to strengthen the health system.
“If public health is the stated goal, then Nigerians deserve to know how their money is being used to achieve it,” Dr. Okiti asserted, calling for a more transparent and results-oriented approach to tax deployment.
Instead of a blanket tax hike, ThinkBusiness Africa proposes a multi-pronged strategy that includes a national Total Dietary Intake Study to guide interventions, rigorous enforcement of existing regulations (especially on food labeling and trans fats), and broader community-based solutions like school nutrition programs and active lifestyle campaigns.
This approach reflects a deeper understanding of the interwoven nature of health and economics. “Trigger-happy fiscalism,” Dr. Okiti warned, may do more harm than good in a country grappling with inflation, unemployment, and fragile industrial growth.
As Nigeria weighs its options in the fight against non-communicable diseases, ThinkBusiness Africa’s intervention brings clarity, balance, and a refreshing dose of economic wisdom—reminding stakeholders that smart, inclusive policy is the true path to sustainable health outcomes.
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