Why June inflation dropped to 22.22% from 22.97% in May

From Isaac Anumihe, Abuja

The drop in food inflation has been attributed to the decline in the headline inflation rate in June, which eased to 22.22 per cent relative to the May 2025 headline inflation rate of 22.97 per cent.

In a statement by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the June 2025 headline inflation rate showed a decrease of 0.76 per cent compared to the May 2025 headline inflation rate.

But on a year-on-year basis, the headline inflation rate was 11.97 per cent lower than the rate recorded in June 2024 (34.19 per cent).

“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in June 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., June 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.

“On a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in June 2025 was 1.68 per cent, which was 0.15 per cent higher than the rate recorded in May 2025 (1.53 per cent). This means that in June 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in May 2025.”

Meanwhile, the food inflation rate in June 2025 was 21.97 per cent on a year-on-year basis, 18.90 per cent points lower compared to the rate recorded in June 2024 (40.87 per cent).

According to the NBS report, the significant decline in the annual food inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year.

“On a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in June 2025 was 3.25 per cent, up by 1.07 per cent compared to May 2025 (2.19 per cent). The increase can be attributed to the rate of increase in the average prices of green peas (dried), pepper (fresh), shrimps (white dried), crayfish, meat (fresh), tomatoes (fresh), plantain flour, ground pepper, etc,” the report said.

However, the “all items less farm produce and energy” or core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 22.76 per cent in June 2025 on a year-on-year basis; declined by 4.64 per cent when compared to the 27.4 per cent recorded in June 2024.

Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 2.46 per cent in June 2025, up by 1.36 per cent compared to May 2025 (1.10 per cent). The average twelve-month annual inflation rate was 24.14 per cent for the twelve months ending June 2025, which was 0.07 per cent points higher than the 24.06 per cent recorded in June 2024.