By Tosin Clegg
Public health challenges remain a serious concern in Ekiti State and across Nigeria, with diseases such as sexually transmitted infections (STIs), HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other infectious and non-communicable illnesses continuing to threaten lives and livelihoods. Health experts warn that these diseases not only endanger individual well-being but also place a heavy burden on families, communities, and the economy.
Several reports reveal that the number of people (both young and old) exposed to these diseases has shown a fluctuating pattern over the years, but the overall trend is rising. This worrying increase is linked to several factors, such as limited healthcare access, inadequate disease surveillance, low public awareness, poverty, social stigma, and socio-cultural barriers to prevention and treatment. There is an urgent need for effective prevention, control, and management strategies to safeguard people’s health.
Amid this global health crisis, Mr. Ayeni Taiwo, a lecturer at the Department of Statistics, Ekiti State University, Ado-Ekiti, has committed to conducting research aimed at uncovering key trends in major public health diseases, including HIV/AIDS, COVID-19, and other diseases affecting the people of Ekiti State and across Nigeria. His research is focused on utilizing advanced data analytics tools and large-scale population datasets to examine patterns in disease incidence and progression among different demographic groups. By identifying these patterns, Mr. Ayeni hopes to support the development of more targeted and effective disease prevention strategies.
In one of his recent studies, Mr. Ayeni analyzed real hospital data on sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Ekiti State. His research findings revealed that young adults aged 20-29 years were the group most affected by STIs, with rates significantly higher than other age groups.
“This isn’t just about knowing the numbers, it’s about knowing where to focus our efforts”, Mr. Ayeni said. “If we understand who is most at risk, we can intervene in a way that’s both more targeted and more effective.” Such insights are especially valuable for public health agencies operating with limited budgets. Rather than distributing prevention campaigns evenly across all demographics, officials can now direct high-impact interventions towards the groups most vulnerable to infection.
Beyond identifying high-risk groups, Mr. Ayeni is also helping individuals assess their personal risk of contracting HIV. Towards achieving this, he has developed a statistical framework that calculates a person’s annual probability of infection based on their specific risk factors, shifting the conversation from general population-level statistics to a more personalized risk assessment. Instead of hearing that “people like you” might be at risk, individuals could receive information about their own specific situation based on factors relevant to their lives.
“The goal was to make risk tangible”, he explained. “When people see a number that applies to them personally, they can make better decisions to protect themselves and their loved ones.” This personalized approach, he added, could transform how both individuals and health agencies respond to HIV and STI infections, thereby providing clear and evidence-based tools for prevention.
According to Mr. Ayeni, “Statistical methods allow us to see beyond the surface of raw data and uncover underlying patterns and trends that can inform public health policy,” Additionally, “Our findings show that combining multiple data sources with rigorous statistical modelling can pinpoint high-risk demographics, reveal key drivers of outbreaks, and guide focused interventions to protect those most affected.
In an era where health crises can spread rapidly and resources are often stretched thin, Mr. Ayeni’s research underscores the power of data to inform action that could save lives. By translating complex statistical findings into clear, targeted strategies, whether by mapping disease patterns, creating personalized risk assessment tools, or forecasting pandemic impacts, his work empowers both policymakers and individuals to respond more effectively to public health threats, ensuring that prevention efforts are smarter, sharper, and ultimately, more successful.
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