When is Petrobras Coming? – THISDAYLIVE

For a deal once announced with presidential enthusiasm, Petrobras’s return to Nigeria, being long on promise and short on motion, is moving at the pace of a Lagos traffic light. And even as Abuja’s optimism remains loud, Brasília’s response seems careful. Between them sits a growing silence that sounds like doubt.

Five years after its exit, the Brazilian energy giant was expected to rejoin Nigeria’s oil and gas sector this year. Talks began in earnest following President Bola Tinubu’s August visit to Brazil, where both sides signed five new memoranda covering energy, aviation, and trade. Petrobras, famed for its deepwater expertise, was cast as a key partner in unlocking Nigeria’s vast gas reserves of more than 200 trillion cubic feet by some estimates.

Yet, months later, the “return” remains mostly theoretical.

Negotiations with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) are still in early stages, with no final commitments or timelines. Abuja insists the partnership is alive; industry watchers say it’s adrift in paperwork and politics. Some now wonder if Petrobras is hesitating for strategic reasons or simply waiting to see if Nigeria’s reforms will hold.

The irony is rich. Both countries have the kind of chemistry that should work: similar colonial pasts, shared ambitions, and economies reliant on hydrocarbons. Brazil needs new frontiers; Nigeria needs credible investors. When Tinubu stood beside President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brasília, the symbolism was thick as the two leaders talked about technology transfer, clean energy, and South-South solidarity.

But investors prefer certainty to ceremony. Petrobras’s caution is indicative of a long-known truth about Nigeria’s energy space: reforms may be “impactful,” as the president insists, but investors want proof that the old hurdles like bureaucracy, foreign exchange instability, and opaque terms have truly eased.

So, the question: will Petrobras take the plunge, or will this be another diplomatic headline that fades into memory? For now, the rigs are still idle, the MoUs still in folders, and the promise, like the gas itself, still beneath the surface.