Political forecasts in Osun State are as reliable as August rain; everyone predicts it, but no one knows how hard it will fall. The 2026 governorship race is already defying easy prediction.
Incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, now of the Accord Party, enjoys a powerful incumbency. He defeated a sitting governor in 2022, proving his formidable grassroots appeal and a strong personal coalition. His “Imole” movement retains deep emotional resonance.
Meanwhile, his challenger, Bola Oyebamiji of the APC, is a study in contrasting pedigrees. A former Finance Commissioner and ex-MD of NIWA, he is a technocrat backed by the formidable machinery of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola and, by extension, President Tinubu. He projects confidence in a landslide.
A third disruptor, Najeem Salaam of the ADC, makes this analysis for the Ogun gubernatorial all the more complex. A former Speaker and political ally of estranged former Governor Rauf Aregbesola, Salaam’s candidacy represents a factional war within the broader progressive family, a potential spoiler for the APC.
Adeleke’s defection to Accord was a strategic gambit to sidestep PDP internal crises. Per the arguments of critics, this move tests whether his personal brand is stronger than a traditional party logo, with his administration’s record on salaries and infrastructure forming his defence.
On the other hand, Oyebamiji’s challenge is to translate federal backing and party structure into a compelling local narrative. Critics whisper he is a placeholder for Oyetola, a perception he must overcome to inspire beyond the party faithful.
Where the calculus is intricate, much honour is due: Adeleke’s organic connection versus Oyebamiji’s institutional might, with Salaam waiting to siphon critical votes. The election may hinge on which camp better mobilises a disillusioned youth electorate. At least, that is the opinion of those with insider info.
For now, the race is a tense stalemate between a popular performer and a proficient planner. And because in Osun, voters have a history of emotional rebellion, 2026 may be less of a coronation and more of a high-stakes audit of both affection and administration.
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