Inflation remained above 20 per cent in six states and the Federal Capital Territory in February 2026, highlighting persistent price pressures at the subnational level despite a marginal easing in Nigeria’s headline rate.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index report showed that headline inflation slowed slightly to 15.06 per cent in February from 15.10 per cent in January.
However, disaggregated figures indicate that several states continue to experience significantly higher inflation, driven largely by food prices and local cost dynamics. An analysis of the report shows that Kogi recorded the highest all-items inflation at 23.6 per cent, followed by Benue at 22.9 per cent and Anambra at 22.1 per cent.
The Federal Capital Territory posted 21.9 per cent, while Oyo and Akwa Ibom recorded 21.6 per cent and 20.9 per cent, respectively. Adamawa stood at 20.0 per cent, sitting at the threshold.
The spread of inflation across these states suggests that national disinflation is yet to translate into broad-based price relief, with regional cost structures and supply conditions sustaining elevated inflation.
Food inflation remains a central factor behind the divergence. Kogi recorded food inflation of 26.9 per cent, while Adamawa and Benue posted 23.1 per cent and 21.9 per cent, respectively.
These levels are significantly above the national food inflation rate of 12.12 per cent, indicating stronger localised pressures in key consumption and production areas.
Even in states with relatively lower food inflation, such as Anambra at 13.8 per cent and Oyo at 14.9 per cent, overall inflation remained above 20 per cent, reflecting the contribution of non-food components such as transport, housing, and energy costs.
A key development in February was the sharp reversal in monthly price trends. All the states recorded positive month-on-month inflation after experiencing price declines in January, pointing to renewed momentum in price increases.
Anambra recorded the fastest monthly rise in all-items inflation at 4.1 per cent, closely followed by Oyo at 4.0 per cent and Akwa Ibom at 3.8 per cent.
Abuja and Kogi recorded increases of 2.2 per cent and 2.1 per cent, respectively, while Benue and Adamawa posted more modest increases of 0.3 per cent and 0.7 per cent.
The pattern was even more pronounced in food prices, where all states recorded strong monthly increases. Anambra led with a 6.6 per cent rise, followed by Akwa Ibom at 6.5 per cent and Kogi at 5.9 per cent. This suggests that food supply conditions may have tightened again after the temporary relief seen in January.
In contrast, January data showed widespread declines in both food and all-items inflation across the same states. Kogi recorded a 6.0 per cent drop in all-items prices and 6.8 per cent in food prices, while Abuja posted declines of 4.5 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively. Similar downward movements were recorded in Anambra, Oyo, Akwa Ibom, and Adamawa.
The reversal between January and February indicates that the earlier decline in prices was likely temporary, with underlying structural pressures re-emerging quickly.
Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined marginally to 15.06 per cent in February 2026, from 15.10 per cent in January. The report stated, “In February 2026, the Headline inflation rate eased to 15.06 per cent, down from 15.10 per cent in January 2026,” indicating a slight moderation in the pace of price increases across the economy.
Data from the report showed that the Consumer Price Index rose to 130.0 in February 2026 from 127.4 in January, reflecting a 2.6-point increase within the month. The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices of goods and services consumed by households.
According to the bureau, the inflation rate also declined sharply on a year-on-year basis. “The February 2026 Headline inflation rate was 11.21 percentage points lower than the rate recorded in February 2025 (26.27 per cent),” the report noted.
However, despite the yearly slowdown, prices rose faster on a monthly basis. The NBS said the month-on-month inflation rate stood at 2.01 per cent in February 2026, compared with a decline of 2.88 per cent recorded in January.
“This means that in February 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate of increase in the average price level in January 2026,” the bureau explained.
However, members of the Organised Private Sector warned that the marginal easing in headline inflation offers little relief to businesses and households, citing persistent increases in food and energy costs.
In separate interviews with The PUNCH, OPS members said the improvement in inflation was too small to make a meaningful difference to business operations or the cost of living.
The President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, Dr Femi Egbesola, said the slight drop in inflation was largely driven by seasonal demand factors rather than structural improvements in the economy.
Egbesola said, “I think the reason for the marginal reduction in the inflation rates is well imagined, and I think it’s because you would agree that until this recent time, there’s been some stability in effects, which definitely would drive down inflation. At the same time, we are now in the post-holiday season, so demand has reduced because the Christmas and New Year period has passed, and purchases are not very tight.”
He stressed that the marginal decline was not enough to warrant celebration among small and medium-sized enterprises. Egbesola added that the current inflation figures have not translated into relief for businesses or households.
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