Anything Can Happen – THISDAYLIVE

Tim Akano

Anything?
Yes!
And, I am not being flippant.

President Trump’s prime time Presidential address to the nation early this morning, 2:00 am, Thursday, 2nd April, 2026 (WAT) doubled down on his determination to send Iran back to the “stone age, where it rightly belong”. Trump’s speech was concerning as it was bereft of timeframe to end the war or to re-opening the strait of Hormuz or what happens to the 441kilograms of uranium, enriched up to 60% still in Iran’s possession. Reading Trump’s lips this morning, it seems as if the door of reasonable negotiations remains closed. A few hours before Trump’s speech, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a new Israel -Arab alliance whose objective is to vanquish Iran’s capabilities to do evil.
From the grapevine, intelligence has it that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries prevailed on President Trump not to exit the war until “the Job is done”.

Within 5 minutes of Trump’s speech, the price of gasoline went up by 4%. Color of trouble!

We are just one mistake away from global inferno: Middle East is at the breaking point and everyone is badly hurt worldwide. When the Bosnia-Serb nationalist, Gavrilo Princip, fired the first shots, assassinating Archduke Franz Ferdinand, on June 28,1914 in Sarajevo, also on September 1st,1939 when the German forces invaded Poland, little did the whole world realize then that both events, though local in nature, would beget WW1&WW2 respectively.

On the table this morning are three major possibilities: a Breakdown scenario or a Breakthrough or a war of attrition, i.e. Afghanistan type of a “forever-war.” Beware, the ideas of April 2026 will be decisive as the decisions taken in Washington, Jerusalem, Tehran, Moscow, Istanbul and Riyadh will have long lasting ricocheting consequences on our civilization.

Breakdown Scenario

If Trump-Bibi-IRGC prioritize EGO instead of PEACE, our civilization will enter a dark, chaotic era, signaling the death and interment of the America-led Unipolar world order. Dante inferno will take over in the Middle East if the Gulf countries join the war against Iran, Trump invades Kharg island, Israel annex half of Lebanon, even beyond the Litani river with a view to achieving her long-term dream of a Greater Israel agenda. If Russia, now awash with petrol dollars, begins to fund Iran more actively, and France, UK and Japan reluctantly join the war, after Trump’s statement of “Go get your own oil” in an attempt to liberate the strait of Hormuz.

In a scenario like the above, things fall apart- the falcons cannot hear the falconers, as the global supply chain will break down completely. At this stage, global economic meltdown becomes inevitable as oil prices cross the $150- $200 mark per barrel, making affordability to become an impossibility, inflation goes to the rooftop, the oil economy collapses, OPEC+ countries are wheeled to the ICU, as many factories shut down and purchasing power evaporates, leading to global food crisis, mass unemployment, financial panic and banks failure. Consequently, global trade will drop sharply, causing mass poverty. With Yemen’s Houthis joining the war, the scenario only gets messier.

The “Gates of Tears”- that 30-km wide shipping lane known as the strait of Bab-el Mandeb which connects the red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, where 12%-15% of global seaborne oil and trade pass through may soon be closed as the Houthis has threatened. Technically, once the Insurance companies decline to insure ship passing through the Houthis- controlled waterways, i.e. Yemen, Djibouti and Eritrea, it’s game over for another 15% of global seaborne trade.

When you juxtaposed the emerging development in Yemen with what is happening currently in the strait of Hormuz where 20% of the world’s trade, including oil, gas fertilizer and food is currently being crippled by Iran’s IRGC, the severity of this season becomes clearer, as close to 35% of the world’s trade is now facing uncertainty. If the situation is not resolved quickly, something worse than a recession might follow: The Great Depression (2027-2030) similar to the America’s 1930- 1941 Great Depression becomes our automatic choice.

The world is playing with fire because 35% of the world’s oil supply, 20% of the gas, 43%of the urea exports, 27% of ammonia, 47% of Sulphur trade and over $500 billion trade yearly in travels and tourism is presently at risk.

Warning: there are no good military solutions left on the table. All the leftover military options are bad, and will irrevocably lead to a BREAKDOWN

This war cost America an average of $1 billion daily, it cost Israel $320million daily, while Iran figures are not available, the infrastructure that had been destroyed in Iran will require tens of billions of dollars to fix. Before the war in February 28, 2026, it was estimated that Iran would need $500 billion to modernize her infrastructure. With the level of her destruction today, a top-up of about $200 billion will be required to undo the damage caused by the event of February 28, 2026.

The second possibility is a war of attrition, where both America and Israel are unable to win the war convincingly and conclusively through conventional methods.
And since the elongation and elevation of the Iran war serves Russia’s core interest, therefore, Putin may decide to be adding three liters of petrol weekly to keep the fire burning for another decade.

Although China is hurting, but it is equally in China’s long term strategic interest for America to exhaust her energy in the Iran war, just the same way the defunct USSR got expired in the Afghanistan war. It will be recalled that the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and left in 1989 after heavy casualties and economic chaos at home. By December 1991, USSR died after “a protracted economic illness resulting from the terrible injury she sustained from Afghanistan military misadventures, and she was survived by 15 quarrelsome children, among which are Russia, the eldest son, and Ukraine, the second born” (smile).

I have a hunch as I write, that both China and Russia are secretly praying for America to make a mistake of invading Kharg Island.
Having said that, if Iran is allowed to take ownership of the strait of Hormuz and Yemen, “The Gates of Tear” waterways, the consequences will be unpalatable for globalization and world trade. It means other countries in similar situations like China, Taiwan, Singapore, Djibouti etc can one day erect Toll Gate on international waterways and hold the whole world into ransom.
This is why the world should pray for a breakthrough.

BREAKTHROUGH SCENARIO
What war cannot resolve, Diplomacy can!
This will happen if the peace plan being championed currently by Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt comes to fruition and both America and Iran accept immediate cessation of war. However, the 3 major countries fighting seem to have irreconcilable differences.
Israel wants a crippled Iran that will be a replica of today’s Libya. America (sorry, Trump) is obviously more interested in a subdued Iran (another Venezuela) to control its oil without opposition. Iran on the other hand is interested in complete Death to both America (which she calls Senior Devil) and Israel (which she calls Baby Devil). The world will need a personality gifted with a “King “Solomon” type of wisdom to reconcile the three countries. This is not impossible even though it might be difficult. It’s another Partial Differential Equations (PDEs).

7 Lessons Africa Must Learn from the Iran War

1. Technology is King. The nation that owns superior technology will always rule over the ones that are technology-dependent/deficient. Within 24 hours, America and Israel succeeded in taking out (almost completely) Iran’s Air Force, Navy, and the Iranian first and second elevens leadership. That’s cutting-edge technology and intelligence. Africa needs to prioritize Science, Math and Artificial intelligence education from kindergarten to Higher institutions if we are to become truly sovereign. Ukraine transited in four years from being a technology consumer to becoming a technology exporter. As I write, Saudi Arabia and GCC have signed security partnership with Ukraine. If Ukraine can do it, Africa has no excuse.
2. There is no viable substitute yet to Fossil fuel as a source of energy. India, Japan, Cuba, Sri Lanka, Kenya, South Africa and the Philippines among others are economically bleeding today. The question is, where is the Green Energy that everyone brags about?
   Through the help of Nigeria, Africa should strive for energy independence and diversification.
   Nigeria has a crucial role to play in Africa’s tireless journey towards energy sovereignty. To this end, I recommend to the Nigeria State to deliberately create at least “six Dangotes”. There should be one in each region through state business patronage and protection from external competition for them to be in a position to build conglomerates like Dangote Refinery (DR) that can compete globally, especially in the energy sector. It is not a sin. Japan did it through Toyota, Honda, Mitsubishi, and South Korea did with Samsung, LG and Daewoo. Africa needs giant conglomerates to compete internationally. We have to be intentional about it.
3. The Iranian Onion-Layered Leadership Structure (OLLS) is something for Africa to study and learn from. The death of the great Nelson Mandala created a big lacuna in leadership competence and performance in South Africa. Mandela’s ideology of grit, honesty, and competence died with him. The elimination of the Iranian leadership (1st and 2nd eleven) did not change the fundamentals in Iran, rather it reinforces it.
4. Low-cost drones’ technology is the future of war. The rise of Drones technology in warfare as seen in Ukraine and Iran has reduced the cost of war. Today a $20k drone can destroy a city. That is good and bad at the same time. It is good because Africa can acquire the skills to defend itself inexpensively and it is bad because destruction of a city like Lagos/Johannesburg/Nairobi/Accra doesn’t cost more than 50 drones or $1M. It will be a problem if terrorists master the technology before the State. Africa needs to prioritize the teaching of Drones and robotics technology in all our Military schools and even conventional schools across the continent.
5. The world’s economy is interconnected, like siamese twins. The development in the strait of Hormuz has proved that the world, indeed is one economy, one global village. That being the case, Africans should start thinking global in their worldview.
6. Strategic Sovereignty has to be prioritized with tact, grit, confidence and sense of urgency if Africa is to remain relevant in the comity of nations. One Africa mindset is imperative.
7. War is ugly. It is human stupidity that makes wars inevitable. For instance, for 47 years, Iran has been preparing indirectly for the destruction that befell her by shouting death to America and to Israel, instead of prioritizing economic transformation like her neighbours – Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries. Unfortunately, the innocent GCC countries happen to have become victims of geography. When comparing Iran with North Korea, the latter possesses significant military strength but understands its limits and stays within its lane.
   Multicultural countries like Nigeria that is perpetually on the brink of collapse and where non-state actors are becoming more powerful than the State should apply the break. We are all witnesses to what is happening in the Middle East, even Trump is shocked that Europe and Japan refused to help him with regards to liberating the strait of Hormuz. China is not a game in any war that is not hers. Russia is war-weary.
   Therefore, no country should be stupid enough to allow war to break out. Nigeria should find a way to resolve her internal contradiction through Decentralization along the natural and nationality fault lines before it snowballs into inferno.

THE WAY OUT: TimA’s Options

Where there is a will, there is a way!

1. President Trump should accept the reality that Iran is not Venezuela, and the 15-point agenda is too lousy, just like the Iranian 5-point agenda.
   I recommend a 3-point agenda in the first phase:
   A. Iran should vacate the strait of Hormuz,
   B. It should vanquish her dreams of nuclear weapons, and,
   C. End firing missiles across the Gulf countries.
   In exchange, both America and Israel should stop bombing Iran and sanctions should be lifted immediately, while comprehensive peace talks commence.
2. President Trump should consider setting up TAP (Trump Aid Plan) a Middle East recovery plan, which is similar to the Marshall Aid Plan, which, the Europe and Japan recovery plan set up by President Harry Truman in April 1948. The symbolism is unmistakable: Truman’ Marshall Plan: April 1948, Trump Aid Plan April 2026).
   A sum of $1 trillion should be considered as seed capital to achieving peace, stability and shared prosperity in the Middle East. By doubling the Iran daily oil production from 3.3mbd to 7.0 mbd, the $1 trillion is doable in addition to the support from the rich Gulf countries and $200bn from America.
   I recommend that the $200bn which Trump has asked the Congress to approve to bomb Iran should be granted by the Congress but used as seed capital for TAP (Trump Aid Plan for Middle East). It’s a win-win for both America and Middle East. With this, America will have achieved her ambition of her “global strategic energy dominance”.
   While China controls the global supply chain (manufacturing) America controls the “global ENERGY chain”, leading to balance of economic power between America and China and ultimately, leading to wealth equilibrium and shared prosperity. In all human history disequilibrium has always the main source of war. Hitler started WW2, for instance, because he wanted to correct the 1884 Berlin Mistake, during the partitioning of Africa that left Germany with the short end of the colonialism stick.
   If we are intentional about addressing the looming disequilibrium that gives China untold economic power, the world might enjoy another 100 years of bliss and relative peace
3. The Board of Peace assignment should be expanded to cover Iran Lebanon and Gaza reconstruction.
4. President Trump and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, MBS, should prioritize the rapprochement between Israel and GCC, through what I call “ABRAHAM ACCORD + 3”, this is to accommodate Iran, Lebanon and Gaza in a comprehensive Middle East settlement between Israel and her Arabs and Persian cousins.

CONCLUSION
War is business. Who gains in the ongoing war? Russia is the biggest beneficiary. She is getting an extra revenue of about $1Billion daily ($864 million, precisely). The second person is our man, Aliko Dangote. Dangote Refinery (DR) entered the market at the right time. The story of Aliko is like what the Bible says “when a man’s way pleases God, lines will keep falling in the right places for him”.
Africa should put on her thinking cap and begin TODAY to work for strategic sovereignty in energy, technology, economy, currency and food. Having been bitten twice, i.e. first by COVID 19, and now by Iran war, does Africa need the 3rd bite of death before borrowing herself some wisdom?

*Tim Akano
President, One Africa Initiatives (OAI)
www.timakano.com
timakano1@gmail.com