…Says route-aircraft mismatch main culprit
By Chinelo Obogo
A new report by Brazilian aircraft manufacturer, Embraer, has fingered a mismatch between fleet size and market demand as the main culprit draining the purse of African airlines.
The global aeroplane manufacturing behemoth, while urging African carriers to recalibrate their operational strategy, warned that continuing to operate oversized aircraft on thin passenger routes would continue to drive up costs and erode profitability across the continent.
These were contained in the Embraer Market Outlook 2025, which was released yesterday ahead of the 2025 Paris Air Show.
It revealed that 85 per cent of intra-African routes handle fewer than 200 passengers per day, making them poorly suited for large jets.
Yet, industry data shows that African airlines continue to deploy 150-seat aircraft on these low density routes, which has led to low load factors, reduced flight frequency and poor financial returns, making air travel more expensive and less accessible for millions.
Embraer’s data shows that 160 low-to-medium demand routes across Africa are currently served by planes that are too large. This inefficiency stifles growth, as airlines are left to struggle with low profit margins due to empty seats, limited connectivity and higher operating costs which driving up ticket prices. The company said: “Africa’s air travel markets are predominantly thin-demand. Smaller aircraft offer the right capacity, cost efficiency, and flexibility to open new routes with reduced economic risk.”
Embraer suggests that properly sized aircraft can improve access to services, facilitate trade, and strengthen regional economic and transport connectivity. The company’s broader market outlook forecasts demand for 10,500 sub-150-seat jets and turboprops globally over the next 20 years, representing a market value of $680 billion in new orders. The 20-year growth projections show China leading annual Revenue Passenger Kilometer (RPK) growth at 5.7 per cent, followed by Latin America (4.7 per cent), Africa (4.4 per cent), the Middle East (4.4 per cent), Asia Pacific (4.1 per cent), Europe (3.3 per cent), and North America (2.4 per cent).
By 2044, world RPKs are expected to reach 19 trillion, with Asia Pacific and China representing 39 per cent of global traffic, while Europe and North America combined will generate 37 per cent of total air transport demand. Embraer projects that globally, replacement of aging aircraft will account for 52 per cent of all new deliveries over the next two decades, while 48 per cent will support market growth.
For Africa, the company said that this presents an opportunity to deploy the right fleet size during replacement cycles. The report states that the mismatch can be addressed through strategic fleet planning which would make air travel more accessible while improving airline profitability and operational efficiency.
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