Experts forecast revenue lift for banks as non-oil exports jump 20%

By Chinwendu Obienyi

Nigeria’s banking sector is expected to benefit from rising demand for trade finance and foreign exchange services following a nearly 20 per cent surge in non-oil exports in the first half of 2025, according to industry analysts and export authorities.

New data from the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) shows that non-oil export earnings reached $3.225 billion between January and June 2025, up from $2.696 billion recorded during the same period last year, representing a 19.6 per cent year-on-year increase. The volume of goods exported also grew to 4.04 million metric tonnes, up from 3.83 million metric tonnes in H1 2024.

NEPC Director-General, Nonye Ayeni, stated this during the presentation of the H1 2025 Non-Oil Export Performance Report in Abuja. Ayeni recalled that Q1 2025 exports alone were valued at $1.791 billion, representing a 24.75 per cent increase from $1.436 billion in Q1 2024. Volumes in Q1 2025 also grew by 24.3 per cent to 2.416 million metric tonnes.

Exports included agricultural commodities, extractive industry products, manufactured goods, and semi-processed items. Ayeni noted a gradual diversification away from traditional agricultural goods toward higher-value semi-manufactured products.

“However, it is pertinent to state that the non-oil export of Nigerian products is gradually diversifying from traditional agriculture exports to semi-manufactured products,” she said.

Ayeni noted that based on the data received from pre-shipment Inspection Agents (PIAs), of the top 20 products exported in the first half of this year, cocoa beans was the highest.

She said that the product had 34.88 per cent value in terms of total export compared to 23.18 per cent for the same period in 2024.

Urea/fertiliser came second with 17.65 per cent as against 13.78 per cent for the first half of 2024,” she added.

This expansion is being driven by increased global demand, enhanced value addition, and improved market access, particularly to African and Asian economies such as India, Vietnam, Indonesia, and South Africa. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) has also opened new corridors for Nigerian exports.

While NEPC has not directly commented on the banking sector implications, analysts suggest the export uptick is likely to trigger a rise in banking activity, especially in letters of credit issuance, export documentation, FX repatriation, and trade advisory services.

Vice Chairman, Board of Directors at Highcap Securities, David Adonri, said, “Banks that are active in trade finance stand to gain as exporters seek funding, currency conversion, and transactional support. With the right infrastructure and regulatory support, banks could see a notable increase in export-related revenue streams.”

Cocoa and its derivatives remain dominant, accounting for over 40% of total export value. Fertilizer, cashew nuts, sesame seeds, and urea also featured prominently. The export destinations spanned over 100 countries, highlighting Nigeria’s increasing global reach beyond crude oil.

In previous years, leading commercial banks including Zenith Bank, UBA, and GTBank have been at the forefront of processing non-oil export transactions. In H1 2024 alone, 32 banks participated in the repatriation of export proceeds.