By Uche Usim
Europe is pivoting to Nigeria and other African nations to secure its energy lifelines. This move is necessitated by its shifting security relationship with the United States and ongoing war in the Middle East.
Europe’s recalibration began when President Donald Trump recently questioned the relevance of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), an intergovernmental military alliance formed in 1949 by Western nations.
Trump also signalled a possible withdrawal.
“They haven’t been friends when we needed them. “We’ve never asked them for much. It’s a one-way street”, the US President said.
The comments have unsettled European capitals already grappling with geopolitical fragmentation and exposed vulnerabilities in their energy systems.
UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, pushed back, describing NATO as “the single most effective military alliance the world has ever seen,” adding, “we are fully committed to NATO.”
Yet, even as Europe reaffirms its security commitments, it is becoming more cautious in military entanglements.
On the Israel–Iran conflict, Starmer made Britain’s position clear: “This is not our war. We will not be drawn into the conflict,” despite backing a multinational effort to secure shipping routes and granting the United States access to military bases.
That restraint reflects a deeper concern, which is Europe’s exposure to energy disruptions from the Middle East.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has choked one of the world’s most critical crude oil corridors, laying bare Europe’s dependence on volatile supply routes.
The disruption is already biting as roughly 40 per cent of Europe’s jet fuel has historically transited through Hormuz.
With flows constrained, prices in north-west Europe have surged to about $1,744 per tonne, nearly double pre-conflict levels, intensifying pressure on industries and consumers.
While Gulf allies of the United States have urged Washington to sustain pressure on Iran, arguing Tehran has not been sufficiently weakened, Europe has largely taken a more measured stance, prioritising de-escalation over confrontation. That caution has drawn criticism.
“Across major European capitals, the initial response was caution, distance and deflection,” Arab News reported.
“Leaders relied on calls for restraint, opting for avoidance over action and appearing to treat the threat as one that could be managed rather than confronted”, it added.
The report noted that Europe’s eventual engagement has been reactive rather than proactive. “They are stepping forward because they have to. Not because they chose to. That distinction matters.”
Faced with these pressures, Europe is urgently diversifying its energy sources, and Africa is emerging as a critical partner.
New trade flows highlight the shift. Shipments from key West African producers, including Angola and Nigeria, to Europe and Asia are projected to rise by about 200,000 barrels per day to 3.72 million bpd, according to Kpler.
The continent’s proximity, resource base and expanding infrastructure are making it increasingly attractive.
Southern Europe is already deepening ties. Italy has ramped up gas imports from Algeria, now supplying more than 30 percent of its demand, while Nigeria accounts for over half of Portugal’s liquefied natural gas imports.
Refined products are also flowing north. Cargoes from the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos are reaching major European hubs, including Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Milford Haven, as buyers scramble to secure supply in a tightening Jet A1 market.
An industry source at the refinery confirmed the trend. “Most of the European countries have been our main buyers.”
Beyond immediate supply needs, the shift signals a broader recalibration of Europe’s relationship with Africa, from aid-driven engagement to strategic partnership.
EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, recently visited Nigeria and Ghana, unveiling a €288 million package spanning healthcare, agriculture, finance, migration and digital infrastructure.
In Ghana, she signed a key Security and Defence Partnership, stating: “This partnership allows us to work more closely in areas that matter for the security of our citizens, both in Europe and Ghana.”
The European Union has also committed over €1 billion through the European Peace Facility and deployed multiple civilian and military missions to support African-led initiatives, underscoring a growing recognition of Africa’s geopolitical importance.
European lawmakers are openly calling for a policy reset. Younous Omarjee, Vice President of the European Parliament, said: “I believe that we must today revise our policy with African countries and move away from this development aid policy, which is outdated and which does not draw the consequences of concrete realities.”
For Europe, those realities are becoming unavoidable: strained alliances, volatile Middle East supply routes, and the urgent need for reliable energy partners. Africa, long viewed through the lens of aid, is now central to Europe’s economic security calculus.
As global power dynamics shift, experts say that Europe’s energy future may increasingly be written in African oil fields, gas terminals and refineries and will mark a decisive turn from dependency to diversification.
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