The growing crisis in the Middle East is tightening the noose around Africa’s fuel supply chain, with many countries now running on just weeks of refined petroleum products as key import routes come under severe strain.
This follows escalating tensions linked to the Iran war, which has significantly disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global energy flows.
According to the International Energy Agency, about 600,000 barrels per day of petroleum products typically destined for Africa from the Middle East are now at risk, as tanker traffic through the corridor slows to a trickle.
The development has forced governments across the continent to urgently seek alternative supply sources, amid fears that wealthier nations could outbid African buyers in an increasingly tight global market.
A report by Bloomberg noted that the unfolding disruption is exposing long-standing structural weaknesses in Africa’s energy system, particularly the continent’s heavy dependence on imported refined products due to years of refinery closures and underinvestment.
Data from energy analytics firm Kpler also paints a stark picture of the disruption, noting that petroleum product loadings fell sharply from 580,000 metric tonnes in January to 183,000 metric tonnes in February, representing a steep decline of 397,000 metric tonnes, or 68.4 per cent.
The situation worsened in March, as volumes plunged further to zero, marking a complete 100 per cent drop from February levels.
Overall, the region lost the entire 580,000 metric tonnes recorded at the start of the quarter, underscoring a total supply breakdown within just three months and reflecting the severity of disruptions in global fuel trade flows.
Industry tracking also showed that several cargoes originally destined for Europe and Africa have been rerouted to Asia, where demand has surged amid the crisis.
One such vessel, the Brest, initially bound for Rotterdam after loading in India, abruptly changed course near East Africa and diverted towards Indonesia, highlighting the shifting dynamics in global fuel trade.
The ripple effects are already being felt across Africa, particularly in East and Southern regions, where dependence on Middle Eastern fuel imports is highest.
“We are looking everywhere for supply options,” Director-General at South Africa’s Department of Mineral Resources, Jacob Mbele, said in an interview.
“We are comfortable that in the coming weeks or so, we are safe, but the situation is fluid; it changes every day,” he added.
The report warned that securing fuel cargoes will become increasingly difficult for African countries, many of which operate with limited foreign exchange reserves and weak bargaining power.
The crisis is further compounded by the continent’s declining refining capacity. Despite accounting for about seven per cent of global crude oil production, Africa has lost roughly a third of its refining capacity over the past two decades.
This has left many economies heavily reliant on imports from the Middle East, a dependence now proving costly.
In East Africa, countries such as Kenya, which consume about 100,000 barrels of fuel daily and import all its requirements, are particularly vulnerable. The country maintains just 21 days of fuel stock, leaving little margin for disruption.
Chairman of the Petroleum Outlets Association of Kenya, Martin Chomba, said the situation is already biting.
“The biggest suppliers are rationing product, and some distributors are experiencing stock-outs in rural areas,” he said.
Similarly, Ethiopia has urged citizens to cut down on fuel consumption as the government prioritises essential services.
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a public statement that fuel use must now be directed towards “basic and essential needs,” reflecting the growing strain on supply.
In West Africa, the supply gap created by reduced Middle Eastern and Indian shipments is increasingly being filled by Russian exports.
Kpler data showed that about 480,000 metric tonnes of Russian diesel arrived in the region in February, with an additional 446,000 metric tonnes expected in March, marking one of the highest inflows in recent months.
The shift underscores a broader realignment in global energy trade flows, as suppliers redirect cargoes to more lucrative markets.
Further data from S&P Global revealed that Indian diesel exports to Southeast Asia have surged to their highest level since May 2025, driven by stronger pricing dynamics in Asian markets.
Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for nearly half of India’s total diesel shipments in March, leaving African markets with dwindling access to traditional supply channels.
For Africa’s largest economy, Nigeria, however, there appears to be a relative buffer.
The Dangote Refinery, alongside smaller modular refineries, has positioned the country to meet a significant portion of its domestic fuel demand, estimated at 493,000 barrels per day.
The 650,000-barrels-per-day facility, which began operations in 2024, is gradually ramping up production and is expected to provide surplus volumes for export.
However, even Nigeria is not entirely insulated, as the refinery still supplements crude supply with imports, reflecting broader structural challenges in domestic feedstock availability.
Energy experts say the ongoing crisis could have far-reaching implications for fuel prices and energy security across the continent.
They warn that unless African countries accelerate investments in domestic refining capacity and diversify supply sources, similar shocks could trigger recurrent disruptions.
The current situation, they argue, highlights a deeper vulnerability—one where global geopolitical tensions can swiftly translate into domestic economic pressures, particularly for import-dependent nations.
As the Middle East crisis continues to evolve, the race for fuel cargoes is intensifying, leaving Africa’s energy security hanging in the balance.
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