Nigeria’s dollar GDP rose by 22 per cent to about $307bn in 2025, driven by stronger economic output and a firmer naira, according to a report by Quartus Economics.
“In 2025, Nigeria’s dollar GDP expanded 22 per cent. This comprises an 18.43 per cent growth in nominal GDP and a three per cent appreciation of the naira,” the report stated.
The report, titled Nigeria on the Rise Again, noted that the country’s gross domestic product measured in dollars increased from about $252bn in 2024 to $307.5bn in 2025, reflecting a recovery from earlier declines and placing the economy back above the $300bn mark.
It explained that the improvement was supported by both domestic output expansion and exchange rate movements, with nominal GDP rising from N372.8tn in 2024 to N441.5tn in 2025. Within the same period, the average exchange rate appreciated from N1,479/$ to N1,436/$, contributing about three percentage points to the overall dollar GDP growth.
According to the report, the appreciation of the naira was calculated based on the increase in the dollar value of one million naira from $676.13 in 2024 to $696.38 in 2025, representing a gain of about 3 per cent.
The analysis showed that Nigeria’s performance exceeded the Sub-Saharan Africa average dollar GDP growth of 10.33 per cent and outpaced several major African economies, including South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire, Tanzania, Morocco and Angola, with only Ghana recording stronger growth at 37.7 per cent.
It added that Nigeria accounted for nearly 28 per cent of Africa’s total GDP growth in dollar terms in 2025, making it a major contributor to the continent’s expansion. Beyond Africa, the report stated that Nigeria’s dollar GDP growth exceeded that of several emerging economies such as Bangladesh, Indonesia, Turkey, Thailand, and Mexico during the review period.
The report also showed that Nigeria’s share of Africa’s GDP increased to about 14.43 per cent in 2025 from roughly 13.05 per cent in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in its relative economic position on the continent.
On income levels, the report noted that GDP per capita rose by 19.5 per cent to $1,295 in 2025 from $1,083 in 2024, as economic growth outpaced population expansion. It stated, “Despite a population growth of 2.1 per cent, which implied the country added 4.8 million people during the year, the country’s GDP per capita still grew 19.5 per cent in $ terms.”
The report highlighted that the increase in per capita income exceeded the Sub-Saharan Africa average of about 7.7 per cent and also surpassed growth levels in countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Morocco, although Ghana recorded a contrasting decline in per capita terms.
It further noted that Nigeria’s per capita GDP, while still below that of many peer economies, improved relative to regional and global benchmarks. For instance, Nigeria’s per capita income rose to about 72.8 per cent of the Sub-Saharan Africa average in 2025, up from 65.7 per cent in 2024.
Similarly, the country’s per capita GDP as a share of the average for 12 major African economies increased to over 40 per cent, while its proportion relative to selected developing economies rose to nearly 30 per cent.
The report attributed the improvement in both GDP and per capita income to a combination of factors, including currency stability, steady production growth, and moderating population expansion.
It noted that currency stability has played a key role in supporting real incomes and wealth preservation, especially after previous years when exchange rate volatility affected economic outcomes.
On production, the report stated that economic activity is expanding in both nominal and real terms, with growth increasingly linked to the real sector rather than being driven mainly by services. It added that further gains could be achieved with a stronger focus on industrial activity, particularly manufacturing.
Regarding population dynamics, the report observed that although Nigeria’s population remains large and youthful, its growth rate is slowing and is now lower than the pace of economic expansion, creating room for improvements in per capita income.
It stated that between 2020 and 2023, the economy expanded by only 0.97 per cent over 45 months, while population growth exceeded 10 per cent, contributing to rising poverty levels. However, between 2024 and 2025, economic growth exceeded 8 per cent, compared to population growth of about 4.25 per cent.
Providing a broader context, the report noted that Nigeria’s recent performance signals progress in the effort to reduce poverty, although the gains remain modest and require sustained policy support.
It stated that improvements in dollar GDP and per capita income reflect a combination of output growth and a market-determined exchange rate, which provides a more accurate picture of economic conditions.
The report added, “Based on data evidence, we can confirm that Nigeria’s growth is back on track and the country is once again at the forefront of growth among African and other emerging economies.”
Despite the improvement, it cautioned that Nigeria’s GDP and per capita income levels remain below historical peaks and those of several aspirational peers, indicating the need for continued reforms.
The report concluded that while the current trajectory points to renewed growth momentum, sustaining it will depend on consistent macroeconomic policies, deeper structural reforms, and stronger productivity across key sectors of the economy.
The PUNCH earlier reported that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.07 per cent year-on-year in real terms in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting improved economic performance compared with the 3.76 per cent growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2024, according to the Q4 2025 Gross Domestic Product report.
The report released by the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the expansion was supported by growth across the three major sectors of the economy, agriculture, industry, and services, with the services sector retaining its position as the largest contributor to overall output.
On a full-year basis, the economy recorded 3.87 per cent growth in 2025, representing an improvement over the 3.38 per cent growth achieved in 2024.
The growth trumped the projection of the International Monetary Fund, which anticipated that Nigeria’s real gross domestic product would grow by 3.4 per cent in 2025 in its July 2025 World Economic Outlook report.
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