By Chinwendu Obienyi
Following the completion of recapitalisation, banks are poised to significantly expand lending to the Nigerian economy, with credit growth projected to reach 13.4 per cent in 2026, according to EnterpriseNGR.
This projection is contained in the organisation’s latest Financial and Professional Services (FPS) Outlook, developed in collaboration with EY, which highlights a shift in the banking sector from conservative, low-risk investments to more aggressive real-sector lending.
EnterpriseNGR said the anticipated growth represents an increase from the estimated 9.8 per cent recorded in 2025, reflecting improved capital buffers and a stronger appetite for lending among banks.
As at the end of last month, banks have significantly strengthened their balance sheets following the recapitalisation programme driven by the Central Bank of Nigeria, raising approximately N4.65 trilliom in fresh equity.
According to the apex bank, about 33 banks have already met the new capital requirements at the March 2026 deadline, reinforcing confidence in the sector’s resilience and stability.
The CBN in a statement had noted that with stronger capital positions, banks are now better equipped to expand lending to the real sector, including key industries such as energy, manufacturing, and infrastructure.
Sharing the same sentiment, EnterpriseNGR suggested this shift will see increased financing for large-scale projects such as the expansion of the Dangote Refinery, power generation plants, and transport infrastructure, areas that were previously dominated by foreign lenders.
The professional advocacy group explained that the move away from heavy reliance on government securities toward real-sector lending is expected to stimulate economic growth by unlocking funding for productive activities.
Despite expectations of a 300–400 basis point reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), the report noted that banks are likely to maintain profitability through higher loan volumes.
It added that while net interest margins may experience slight compression due to lower funding costs, increased credit expansion will help offset the impact.
However, the organisation cautioned that the shift toward lending, particularly to retail and small and medium-scale enterprises, will require sustained vigilance to manage rising credit risks.
Speaking on the report, EnterpriseNGR’s Chief Executive Officer, Obi Ibekwe, said the publication represents more than a review of Nigeria’s economic journey and provides a forward-looking roadmap for navigating emerging opportunities in a reformed macroeconomic environment.
“Anchored on the theme, Reform-Led Stability: Boosting Confidence, Unlocking Sustainable Growth, this outlook goes beyond documenting Nigeria’s economic evolution; it offers a clear guide to navigating opportunities emerging from a reformed macroeconomic landscape”, She explained.
Ibekwe added that Nigeria’s economic narrative is undergoing a fundamental transformation, following a period of far-reaching and, at times, difficult structural reforms, most notably foreign exchange market unification and fiscal policy recalibration.
While these adjustments tested economic resilience between 2023 and 2025, she said that recent indicators suggest that the economy has reached a critical inflection point.
Highlighting the continued expansion of agency banking networks, which are expected to deepen financial inclusion by extending banking services to underserved and rural communities, Ibekwe said it will also serving as distribution channels for insurance and pension products.
“2026 will mark a strategic turning point for Nigeria’s financial services sector, as banks transition from risk management to playing a more active role in driving real economic growth”, she said.
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