In this report, DENNIS NAKU writes on the uncertain political situation in Rivers State, Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s chances of securing re-election in 2027, and President Bola Tinubu’s directive placing governors above lawmakers, among other related issues
The mood in Rivers State over the past year has been politically calm on the surface, yet uncertain and confusing beneath. There is no gainsaying that the fallout from the political crisis triggered by the disagreement between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his estranged political godfather, now Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, still hangs over the governance of the oil-rich state.
It is surprising that even after the widely publicised reconciliation between the two political gladiators, following President Bola Tinubu’s repeated intervention, all is still not well, as mutual suspicion continues to linger among the key actors.
Wike’s repeated remarks that the “mistake of 2023 will not be repeated in 2027”—a veiled reference suggesting he may not support his successor’s second-term ambition—has further placed Governor Fubara in a politically tight corner.
Interestingly, apart from the 2023 governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress in the state, Tonye Cole, who has once again picked the party’s nomination form to test his popularity in 2027, no other major political figure has openly declared interest in the Rivers governorship race — a notable departure from previous election cycles.
There are indications that Governor Fubara may soon obtain the party’s form to contest for re-election, amid speculations that Wike has reportedly tipped his kinsman from Obio/Akpor Local Government Area and Minority Leader of the House of Representatives, Kingsley Chinda, as his preferred successor.
Chinda, who is said to be edging closer to clinching the Peoples Democratic Party governorship ticket, has remained silent on the 2027 race, unlike the Executive Director of Finance and Administration at the Niger Delta Development Commission, Chief Boma Iyaye—an ally of the FCT Minister—who recently denied any governorship ambition after his name surfaced in political discussions.
Previously, another name had also featured in succession speculations. It was alleged that another close ally of Wike, currently the Executive Director of Projects and Works at the South-South Development Commission, Marcus Nle-Eji, could also be considered for the race.
Although Nle-Eji has not publicly indicated any interest in occupying the state’s top office, a viral photograph showing him shaking hands with President Tinubu in Aso Rock, with Wike standing beside the President, recently stirred political interpretations.
Meanwhile, Wike, while hosting some politicians from the state in his Abuja residence, stated that he has not endorsed anyone to succeed Fubara, insisting that Rivers elders would play a crucial role in the decision. However, his perceived preference for Hon. Chinda continues to strongly resonate within political circles.
However, the lull in political activities in the state has been described as disturbing, with watchers attributing it to Wike’s political style, coupled with his “Rainbow Coalition”— a strategy he adopted to unite members of both the PDP and APC in the state in support of President Bola Tinubu’s second-term bid.
But despite the so-called Rainbow, which Wike prefers to describe as a “Joint Coalition,” and his emphasis on “loyalty” in determining who succeeds Governor Fubara, the state chairman of the African Democratic Congress, Chukwudi Dimkpa, recently faulted the claim, insisting that no individual has the unilateral power to determine who becomes governor.
Similarly, the open endorsement of Fubara by the National Secretary of the APC, Ajibola Basiru, during a visit to Rivers State earlier in the year appears to have lost relevance, given unfolding political developments. This is especially so as the party has yet to formally integrate Fubara into its structure, unlike other sitting governors who defected to the ruling party.
Since his reported alignment with the APC, Fubara has remained somewhat peripheral in the party’s activities. This was evident during the APC zonal congress in Delta State, where none of his loyalists secured positions, while two allies of his predecessor — Chief Victor Giadom and Dr. Samuel Nwanosike — emerged as APC Vice National Chairman (South-South) and APC Zonal Publicity Secretary (South-South), respectively.
With political activities gradually gathering momentum ahead of 2027, Fubara’s situation evokes comparisons with the 2023 epic film Gladiator, starring Russell Crowe, in which the emperor describes the protagonist, Maximus, as a gladiator who defies authority, adding: “And everyone wants to know how the story ends.”
The recent directive by President Tinubu placing governors above lawmakers in their respective states appears, on the surface, to favour Fubara. However, unfolding political realities in Rivers State suggest that its implementation may prove difficult, marking what could be a bumpy political path ahead.
Fubara’s relationship with the Martin Amaewhule-led Rivers State House of Assembly remains frosty, despite President Tinubu’s clear directive urging both sides to halt impeachment-related tensions.
Since their reinstatement in September 2025, following the lifting of the state of emergency, the lawmakers have not been sitting regularly. In fact, they have met fewer than five times in 2026, with their last sitting in March, when they considered a list of commissioner-nominees forwarded by Governor Fubara. Of the nine nominees, four were rejected while five were confirmed.
Notably, of the 29 members of the House, 10 belong to the PDP, while the majority are members of the APC. However, three lawmakers who had aligned with Fubara during the crisis, under the then factional Speaker Victor Oko-Jumbo, are yet to return to the House seven months after the end of the emergency rule. They have also not been acknowledged in plenary by Speaker Amaewhule and his colleagues.
A public commentator working with the Rivers State Government, who spoke on condition of anonymity, commended the presidential directive, describing it as a boost to the authority of incumbent governors. He noted that, however contentious it may appear, lawmakers may have little choice but to align with the state chief executive.
He further argued that the directive also serves as a form of political recompense for Governor Fubara’s perceived role in ensuring the state’s alignment with the APC, although some analysts believe the governor was persuaded into leaving the PDP to facilitate the party’s takeover of the state.
The analyst said, “Rivers State is in a dicey situation now because the options are very clear. Either the lawmakers will heed the directive of their leader and return to the PDP to form a formidable opposition, or they will align with the prevailing political realities.”
“As it stands now, for the Wike-backed lawmakers to stomach their pride and return to the governor will be a very delicate political decision. So the expectation in the days ahead is whether they will comply with the directive of their political leader, the FCT Minister, who to a large extent still controls the political barometer of Rivers State.
“As the be-all and end-all of Rivers State politics, he (Wike) may seek to swing the pendulum in his favour using every available means, which could prove contentious to the established order. Although he is not an official member of the APC, one way to secure loyalty remains his strong influence within the PDP structure, which he still largely dominates.”
On the composition of the House, where some lawmakers belong to the APC and others to the PDP, the analyst described the situation as a political “permutation.”
“So, in the event that one political bloc weakens or collapses, they go back to the drawing board—what some describe as ‘third-degree tactics’—to realign and rebuild a working base. As it stands, the 2027 political equation in Rivers State appears to favour the governor, largely because governors traditionally control the hierarchy of their parties at the state level.
“So there is little likelihood that they will sideline him, especially given the political value attached to the delivery of Rivers State to the APC,” he added.
For his part, an ally of the governor and former member of the House of Representatives, Hon. Ogbonna Nwuke, said the President’s directive aligns with the constitution of the ruling party.
Nwuke, who represented Etche/Omuma Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, added that Tinubu’s directive should not be viewed through the prism of Rivers State alone, stressing that it underscores the important role governors play as leaders of their parties in their respective states.
He further argued that the President’s intervention was aimed at fostering cooperation between governors and lawmakers, which he described as the right approach, while also describing Governor Fubara as a man of peace and understanding.
The former Commissioner for Information and Communications in the state stated, “There is nothing more to say about the fact that the President has indeed upheld the provisions of his party’s constitution and met the expectations of the Nigerian Constitution as well.
“So it is not strange that governors have roles to play in the emergence of candidates in their domains. What the President has done is to encourage collaboration—he is essentially saying, go and work together and demonstrate that you can work together.
“If that is the case, then I do not see any difficulty in a person seeking re-election consulting his governor. And this is not limited to Rivers State; the directive applies nationwide where the APC is in power. It is the right thing to do.
“Also, the governor is a man of peace and understanding. I believe that within the spirit of peace and cooperation, he will do what is necessary to find common ground on who should represent Rivers State,” he added.
But Chimenen Wodi, a loyalist of the FCT Minister and Legal Adviser to the Federal Commissioner to the President on Christian Pilgrimage, holds a different view. He argued that, while the President’s proclamation may appear sacrosanct, there are exceptions to the rule, especially given the peculiar nature of politics in oil-rich Rivers State.
Wodi stated: “Yes, well, the obvious thing is that, from what we have seen in the hierarchy of political leadership in Nigeria, the President is the Alpha and Omega. In our political system, whenever there is a crisis, the President becomes the ultimate reference point. You cannot take that away. When he (Tinubu) speaks, it carries weight.
“Having said that, this does not mean lawmakers will not engage in politics. Some of them are also very strong actors when it comes to individual political calculations.
“The President may have spoken, but when they return to their various states, there are political actors and godfathers operating within the legislative space. Remember, in every state, there are influential political figures who play the role of godfathers.
“Another issue is structure and compliance. You may say the governor is the leader, but in some states, there are entrenched powers you cannot ignore. When the President speaks, they may appear to comply, but they often recalibrate based on local realities. The President is in Abuja, but practical politics is played at home, where father figures and godfathers wield significant influence.”
Wodi added, “Even when directives are issued, practical politics is what determines implementation. It depends on who is involved and where the instruction is coming from. In some states, such directives will be obeyed strictly, while in others, compliance may be partial or even resisted.
“Rivers State, in particular, is in a complex political situation. The politics here is fractured. At this point, it is not even clear who the main actors for 2027 will be. Everybody is playing underground politics. Despite directives, real alignments are still being made.
“In some states there will be total obedience, while in others there will be either overt or covert resistance. However, people will still be cautious because there are those who have direct access to Mr. President and those within his inner political circle.
“The President may have issued directives, but there are always actors who may influence or reinterpret such decisions. In Rivers State, for instance, there are individuals whose political weight and influence mirror that of the President locally. Their body language often reflects presidential authority, and many legislators operate as their political appendages,” he said, in a veiled reference to Wike’s influence over lawmakers in the state.
Wodi, who is also a chieftain of the PDP, further argued that some of the President’s directives could be subject to alteration in practice. He said:
“You know, in politics, it is often like that. What about the body language of godfathers who, in this context, act as representatives of Mr. President?
“They often go back to their caucus or ‘kitchen’ meetings, and during ad hoc consultations they may say, ‘Look, this directive may not work as it is; if implemented that way, it could affect our interests.’ Some governors are very powerful and even act independently. In some cases, they are not fully subservient to the President.
“So when there is political resistance, actors tend to cherry-pick directives. In some instances, what is directed from above may not work, even when the governor insists, ‘this is the way it should be done.’
“This raises the question: do some of them actually exercise full control in their states? So, in my view, these are political realities that make certain directives ineffective in some states, while in others they work perfectly.
“In some cases, such directives may even serve to check the excesses of legislators. But we must also ask: how many of them are truly independent of the governor? How many are subservient to state governors? Ultimately, it is one of those political dynamics being played out, with Rivers State as a reference point.”
On her part, a political activist and former Publicity Secretary of the PDP in the state, Chief Kate Mgbor, said the President’s directive was not out of place, describing it as a reinforcement of existing political realities in the states.
Mgbor, a veteran journalist and political activist, however cautioned that allowing lawmakers easy returns or automatic tickets could make them susceptible to control by political leaders.
“I don’t think what the President has done is out of place because governors have always been in charge. However, in the case of Rivers State, given the current situation, I do not support the idea of automatically returning the present lawmakers.
“I don’t know how they intend to reconcile with the governor, especially since they are not on good terms. However, I believe that anyone who wants to contest elections should go ahead and do so on their own merit.
“You don’t need to be endorsed before you seek office, so that you are not controlled when you get there. That way, people will have independent minds.
“In Rivers State, where one man appears to control the legislature and decisions are largely dictated, I do not see that as democracy. If the President says governors are in charge, then it only confirms what has always existed: governors have always played a central role.
“When Dr. Peter Odili was governor, he was firmly in charge, and the same applied to successive governors who controlled party primaries,” she said.
She further illustrated her point with a personal experience, saying:
“I remember when I wanted to contest for the State Assembly. The governor at the time, Rt. Hon. Chibuike Amaechi, advised me to step down and allow the incumbent to complete a second term. And when such a position is taken, if you still go ahead to contest, you are unlikely to win.”
“So I like what the President said because of the situation in Rivers State; otherwise, what he said is what has been happening in other states as well,” she added.
She also made a case for Governor Fubara’s re-election, arguing that former Governor Nyesom Wike was not denied a second term and should therefore not become an obstacle to his successor’s political advantage.
According to her, “I have never seen a situation where a governor will not go for a second term or will not take control of the election process. The governor is the leader of the party in the state, so he controls the primaries.
“When Wike was here as governor, he did the same thing, so why should this one (referring to Fubara) be different? So I am happy with what the President said.”
Also, speaking, the state Publicity Secretary of the APC, Chibike Ikenga, debunked claims of a strained relationship between Governor Fubara and the lawmakers, insisting that peace now reigns in the state.
Ikenga maintained that the political crisis in Rivers State had since been resolved, with all parties reconciled, adding that the President’s directive does not pose any challenge to the current arrangement.
He stated, “Are you hearing of gunshots in the state? The fact that people belong to different political parties and hold different views does not amount to crisis. People will naturally think differently. Does that translate to instability in a state?
“Those who belong to the same party and share the same interest will ultimately deliver on the mandate they represent. That is what politics is about.
“Why should the President’s directive affect them when they are in the same political party? They have reconciled. Are we still going back to the old problem? People disagree to agree.
“They may have disagreed before, but they have now come back together to work,” the APC spokesman added.
On his part, a lawyer and co-convener of a Non-Governmental Organisation, Access to Justice, Asim Adams, said the President’s directive could be counterproductive given the political realities in Rivers State.
Adams noted that while Governor Fubara is in the APC, his political alignment remains unclear, unlike that of the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, who he said maintains firm control of the PDP structure in the state.
“That directive, for me, is going to be counterproductive, especially with respect to Rivers State. Even Governor Siminalayi Fubara—what faction of the APC does he belong to? Is it the Emeka Beke faction or the Tony Okocha faction?
“If it is the Emeka Beke faction, how is he going to align with them? But if it is the Tony Okocha faction, I don’t think he can even fully operate under that structure. So it is already creating complications.
“The governor, by his body language, cannot independently endorse Assembly members or build consensus without the influence of these factions and key actors. You have the FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, on one side, while the Tony Okocha-led APC faction appears to have stronger control in Rivers State.
“So, the President’s directive, as it stands, could be counterproductive and may further deepen tensions between the governor and the FCT Minister—unless there is a coordinated political understanding.
“Alternatively, despite the directive, the governor and the FCT Minister may still need to come together to agree on representatives in the House,” Adams said.
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