Nigeria must urgently transition from an economy dependent on raw material exports to one driven by ideas, innovation, and the production of complex goods if it hopes to achieve sustainable growth and long-term prosperity, the Chairman of the Nigeria Revenue Service, Zacch Adedeji, has said.
Adedeji made the call on Thursday while delivering the maiden Distinguished Personality Lecture of the Faculty of Administration, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State.
In the lecture, titled “From Potential to Prosperity: Export-led Economy”, the revenue chief warned that Nigeria’s current economic structure leaves it poorly positioned in a global economy that increasingly rewards knowledge, technology and productive complexity rather than natural endowments.
He said, “A paradigm shift for Nigeria is needed to move dependence on raw material exports to one that embraces ideas, innovation and the production of complex products as a pathway to sustainable economic growth and national prosperity.”
A statement issued by his Special Adviser on Media, Dare Adekanmbi, quoted Adedeji as lamenting that despite its size and resources, Nigeria added only six new products to its export basket between 2008 and 2023, reflecting decades of stagnation.
According to him, Nigeria’s export drive witnessed little progress over 25 years between 1998 and 2023, even as peer countries adopted deliberate strategies to diversify and upgrade their productive capabilities.
He said, “Nigeria witnessed stagnation in its exportation drive for three decades between 1998 and 2023, and only added six new products to its export basket list between 2008 and 2023.
“We are not just producing too little; we are producing too little of the wrong things. Growth must be rethought through the lens of economic complexity. It is not about producing more of the same commodities, but about learning how to make new, more sophisticated products.”
Adedeji described Nigeria’s economy as a paradox, noting that while the country operates a high-tech oil and gas sector, the rest of the economy remains dominated by low-productivity informal activities, with no strong industrial base to bridge the gap.
He said Nigeria lacks “the vibrant, labour-absorbing industrial base that serves as a bridge to higher complexity,” a weakness that has constrained job creation and limited value addition.
Citing findings from the Harvard Atlas of Economic Complexity, Adedeji noted that Nigeria currently has very few opportunities to diversify its exports using existing capabilities. “Because of our current position, the Harvard Atlas concluded that we are positioned to take advantage of very few opportunities to diversify using what we already know,” he said.
The NRS chairman urged Nigeria to learn from countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil and South Africa by studying both their successes and failures over the past 25 years. According to him, Vietnam’s rise was driven by a clear strategy to build economic complexity through deep integration into global value chains.
The statement added, “We are not just looking at numbers in a vacuum; we are looking at the strategic choices made by nations like Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Brazil, and South Africa over the same twenty-five-year period. While there are many ways to underperform, the path to success is remarkably consistent: it is defined by a clear strategy to build economic complexity.
“When we put these stories together, the divergence is clear. Vietnam used global trade to build a resilient, complex economy, while the others remained dependent on natural resources or a single low-tech niche.
“There are three big lessons here for us in Nigeria as we think about our roadmap. First, avoiding the resource curse is necessary, but it is not enough. You need a proactive strategy to build productive capabilities. Vietnam’s success came from integrating itself into Global Value Chains. They positioned themselves as the assembly hub for the world’s electronics, importing high-tech parts and exporting finished products.
“This allowed them to ‘borrow’ technology and management skills from abroad to build their own know-how.”
In contrast, Adedeji said countries like Brazil and South Africa lost industrial momentum due to over-reliance on natural resources and failure to continuously upgrade productive capabilities. He warned that Nigeria’s heavy dependence on raw material exports not only limits growth but risks long-term regression.
Adedeji noted, “There are many ways to underperform, but the path to success is remarkably consistent. Avoiding the resource curse is necessary, but it is not enough. You need a proactive strategy to build productive capabilities.
“Nigeria, on the other hand, remains a supplier of raw materials to these chains, not an active participant within them. We must realise that productive capabilities are not permanent. The examples of South Africa and Brazil show us that you can actually lose your industrial edge if you are not careful. Over-reliance on the easy path of resource extraction creates economic and political incentives that crowd out the difficult, long-term work of building an industrial base.
“For a country at Nigeria’s stage of development, relying solely on natural endowments is not just a path to stagnation; it is a path to regression. The global economy increasingly rewards knowledge and complexity, not just what you can dig out of the ground.”
He argued that Nigeria must reposition itself from being merely a supplier of raw materials to becoming an active participant in global value chains, producing higher-value goods and services.
“Relying solely on our natural endowments isn’t just a path to stagnation; it’s a path to regression. The global economy increasingly rewards knowledge and complexity, not just what you can dig out of the ground. If we want to move from potential to prosperity, we must stop being just a source of raw materials and start being a source of ideas, innovation, and complex products.”
Adedeji noted that President Bola Tinubu had already begun what he described as the “difficult work” of rebuilding the economy to foster innovation, productivity and resilience. He added that for Nigeria, which is at an even earlier stage of development and even less diversified than these nations, the warning is stark.
“The journey from potential to prosperity is not a short one, but with the right map and the right resolve, it is a journey we can finally complete,” the statement concluded.
The PUNCH reports that Nigeria’s economy has historically been anchored on crude oil exports, which account for the bulk of foreign exchange earnings and government revenue, leaving the country vulnerable to global price shocks and limiting industrial development.
Despite several industrialisation and export diversification policies over the decades, including export expansion grants and local content initiatives, progress has been slow, with manufacturing contributing a relatively small share to GDP and exports.
In contrast, countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh transformed their economies by deliberately integrating into global manufacturing chains, investing in skills, infrastructure, and institutional capacity.
With declining oil revenues, rising unemployment, and growing fiscal pressures, policymakers and economists have increasingly argued that Nigeria must move beyond commodity exports towards higher-value manufacturing and knowledge-based industries to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth.
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