By Adewale Sanyaolu
Domestic refineries have recorded a crude oil supply shortfall of 33.4 million barrels in the first quarter of 2026.
Latest data released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) on the implementation of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) has shown.
The Commission disclosed that a total of 61.9 million barrels was allocated to local refiners during the quarter. However, actual deliveries stood significantly lower at 28.5 million barrels, indicating that less than half of the committed volumes were supplied.
When compared with volumes offered by producers, the gap is even wider. Producers put forward 68.7 million barrels, but only 28.5 million barrels were eventually delivered, leaving a supply gap of 40.2 million barrels between what was offered and what was received by refiners.
A month-by-month breakdown highlights the persistent shortfall trend.
In January, refiners were allocated 22.6 million barrels, while producers offered 25.3 million barrels. Actual supply, however, came in at just 9.2 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of 13.4 million barrels relative to allocation.
In February, allocations stood at 20.5 million barrels, with producers offering slightly lower at 19.8 million barrels. Deliveries dropped further to 9.1 million barrels, resulting in a shortfall of 11.4 million barrels.
March showed a marginal improvement in supply at 10.1 million barrels, against an allocation of 18.8 million barrels and an offer of 23.6 million barrels. This translates to a shortfall of 8.7 million barrels compared to allocated volumes.
Across the quarter, supply performance ranged between 36 and 46 per cent, underscoring the weak conversion of commitments into actual deliveries.
The Commission attributed the persistent gap largely to pricing disagreements between crude oil producers and domestic refiners. It noted that transactions under the DCSO framework are guided by a “willing buyer, willing seller” principle, which continues to influence final supply outcomes.
Despite the shortfall, the regulator maintained that efforts are ongoing to improve supply reliability. It stated that adjustments to the DCSO framework under the Petroleum Industry Act are expected to enhance transparency and efficiency, with the aim of ensuring that domestic refining capacity is adequately supported.
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