Nigeria on track for 2.5m barrels per day by 2026 

• PENGASSAN advises FG to divest refineries for efficiency

From Adanna Nnamani, Abuja

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has assured that the country is on course to achieve 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) crude oil production by 2026.

Commission Chief Executive Engr Gbenga Komolafe gave the assurance in Abuja while delivering his goodwill message at the 4th PENGASSAN Energy and Labour Summit (PEALS 2025), themed “Building a Resilient Oil and Gas Sector in Nigeria: Advancing HSE, ESG, Investment, and Incremental Production”.

Komolafe said the target is achievable following recent sweeping reforms and renewed investor confidence in the sector.

According to him, the Commission had cut contracting timelines from 36 months to just six months, introduced globally competitive fiscal terms, and unlocked new opportunities in deepwater, frontier, and gas projects.

“Through proactive industry collaboration, reactivation of dormant fields, and our cluster development strategy, production has risen from 1.46 million barrels per day in October 2024 to 1.8 million barrels today. With this momentum, we are firmly on track to reach 2.5 million barrels per day by 2026,” he stated.

The NUPRC boss explained that the deepwater cluster and nodal approach, using shared infrastructure and tiebacks to existing FPSOs like Bonga, Egina, and Agbami, would unlock over 810,000 additional barrels per day, reduce costs, and de-risk investment, mirroring successful global models.

On sustainability, Komolafe highlighted NUPRC’s gas-centred decarbonisation drive, which he noted is aimed at ending routine flaring by 2030, cutting methane emissions by 60 per cent by 2031, and monetising vast gas reserves through the Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP) and the Presidential CNG Initiative.

He stressed that human capital was central to industry resilience, noting that with 70 per cent of Nigeria’s population under 30, the country could train and export world-class energy professionals to meet the 20 million new global energy jobs projected by the IEA by 2030.

“Policy and capital alone do not create value; people do. The role of PENGASSAN members as engineers, geoscientists, HSE professionals, and technicians is pivotal to turning investment into national prosperity,” Komolafe said.

In his welcome remarks, the President of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), Festus Osifo, urged the Federal Government to divest majority shares in the country’s refineries to competent private operators, while retaining minority equity.

Osifo said political interference had crippled the facilities for decades, adding that unless this is addressed, the refineries will continue to operate below capacity.

“We have said this countless times: yes, the refinery should work, but when the refinery is working, you divest. Let government have minority shares in it,” Osifo insisted.

He added that Nigerian professionals had the capacity to run the assets but, without the right tools and free from political manipulation, efficiency is impossible.

Osifo also warned oil companies against preventing employees from joining unions, saying PENGASSAN would resist such practices.