In the days leading up to US and Israeli strikes on Iran, the Islamic Republic’s neighbours were fearful that strikes on the country could destabilise the entire region.
“If the United States strikes, Iran will retaliate, and the crisis will spread throughout the region, with the Strait of Hormuz blocked and actions by its proxies,” a diplomatic source from a country bordering Iran told AFP.
“The chaos in Iran would affect Turkey and the European Union, potentially leading to a massive influx of refugees,” the source added.
Fear of an Iranian response
The main concern among Washington’s allies in the Gulf is Iranian retaliation against the US forces they host or their own infrastructure.
In June 2025, Iran attacked the American Al-Udeid base in Qatar in response to US air strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities during the 12-day war triggered by an Israeli attack.
In January of this year, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Oman leaned on US President Donald Trump’s administration to postpone strikes he was considering in response to Iran’s deadly crackdown on nationwide protests.
The Gulf states “know they are vulnerable because the Iranians have enough basic, intermediate-range missiles to hit vital infrastructure — desalination plants, hydrocarbon hubs, power stations,” said Pierre Razoux, research director at the Mediterranean Foundation for Strategic Studies.
Eruption of violence
If the US topples the Islamic Republic, some fear Iran could descend into violence, with separatist groups and armed militants vying for control.
“If there is to be regime change, it has to come from inside the country,” a senior official in a European intelligence service said.
“If the Americans or the Israelis force regime change, they risk provoking the opposite effect,” similar to what happened in Libya, the intelligence officer said.
After a NATO-backed uprising overthrew longtime president Muammar Gaddafi, Libya fell into a prolonged period of violence and political division.
The weakening of Iran could also give freer rein to groups hostile to its neighbours.
“With the previous Iranian protests, Turkey wanted Iran to remain intact… and worried that if something happened to the regime, the Kurdish groups would capitalise on that and create problems for Turkey,” Gonul Tol of the Middle East Institute told AFP in January.
Turkey fears “chaos on the borders, more refugees into Turkey… and the PKK-linked groups getting more active,” Tol said, referring to the Kurdish party that led an armed insurgency against the Turkish state from 1984 until 2025.
The stakes are similar for Pakistan
“Pakistan in particular would be seriously affected if there is a spillover across its border,” analyst and former diplomat Maleeha Lodhi told AFP in January.
Destabilising Iran could also risk intervention by Iran’s allies elsewhere in the Middle East, including the Houthis in Yemen or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The next refugee crisis
Some of Iran’s neighbours fear a massive movement of refugees similar to what followed Syria’s civil war, a root cause of the 2015 migrant crisis.
“The cross-border shocks are likely to be of an order of greater magnitude… given the size, population, heterogeneity of the country,” Sinan Ulgen, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe, said.
Turkey, Azerbaijan and Armenia are particularly concerned that they could become a destination for refugees, according to Baku-based Russian analyst Nikita Smagin.
For Azerbaijan and Armenia, which are relatively small, this can “threaten the stability of the whole country easily,” he said.
Oil crisis
Oil-producing Gulf states also fear that strikes could result in a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply flows, said Cinzia Bianco, a Gulf researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
For Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, “a liquidity crisis would be a big problem,” Bianco said.
“They are in a big spending time” aiming to diversify their economy, she added.
“All of that is more complicated if there is a weaker Iran” coupled with an oil crisis, Bianco said.
A drop in oil supplies from the Gulf could prompt China, the world’s top importer, to fill the gap elsewhere, Razoux said.
This would be bad news for the Gulf monarchies, which are also trying to reduce their trade dependence on the US.
AFP
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